Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 18.098801 21.865570 26.043284 30.995646 36.680192 42.974919 50.445336
2025-05-04 12.968458 17.967968 24.112402 32.106905 42.111459 54.090741 69.379633
2025-05-11 9.982002 15.422250 22.662349 32.758662 46.201057 63.193043 85.966656
2025-05-18 7.728134 13.183824 20.977463 32.514373 48.691729 70.064523 99.849103
2025-05-25 5.914479 11.114276 19.062702 31.499042 49.774256 74.881101 111.075434
2025-06-01 4.723430 9.716252 17.836911 31.186429 51.621393 80.649473 123.707468
2025-06-08 3.633795 8.223173 16.182258 29.934027 51.849701 84.005561 133.020225
2025-06-15 3.132477 7.669058 15.955778 30.848185 55.334276 92.160765 149.460021
2025-06-22 2.470489 6.638801 14.725958 29.923828 55.797775 95.784267 159.406631
2025-06-29 2.175413 6.297154 14.680745 30.985080 59.481849 104.422899 177.116933
2025-07-06 1.641219 5.275407 13.165298 29.236551 58.323674 105.430585 183.276670
2025-07-13 1.459657 5.047299 13.190984 30.301170 61.988833 114.202247 201.686420
2025-07-20 1.257343 4.744694 13.085978 31.248917 65.777822 123.791741 222.506411
2025-07-27 1.085346 4.478088 13.029497 32.314953 69.918118 134.286897 245.433035
2025-08-03 0.916374 4.158570 12.789817 32.967302 73.328349 143.717679 267.039741
2025-08-10 0.732829 3.715386 12.164431 32.721613 75.010800 150.268682 284.199593
2025-08-17 0.554706 3.200734 11.244049 31.701048 75.090243 154.006632 296.816655
2025-08-24 0.438059 2.853143 10.680290 31.386818 76.494133 160.094658 313.564993
2025-08-31 0.319788 2.419763 9.768948 30.127911 75.863503 162.465321 324.039782
2025-09-07 0.275910 2.305510 9.767485 31.046822 79.770657 173.253619 349.396923
2025-09-14 0.203792 1.988769 9.061133 30.117659 79.699774 176.668061 362.003137
2025-09-21 0.178058 1.917416 9.133574 31.184427 83.981155 188.410731 389.685356
2025-09-28 0.119601 1.574935 8.185791 29.426789 81.924416 188.000377 395.681444